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Copyright, ii
Preface, xiii
1. Management Science, 1
The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving, 2
Time Out: for Pioneers in Management Science, 5
Management Science Application: Management Science at Taco Bell, 6
Model Building: Break-Even Analysis, 7
Computer Solution, 12
Management Science Modeling Techniques, 15
Business Usage of Management Science Techniques, 18
Management Science Application: Employee Scheduling with Management Science, 19
Management Science Models in Decision Support Systems, 20
Management Science Application: A Decision Support System for Aluminum Can Production at Coors, 21
Summary, 22
References, 22
Problems, 23
Case Problems, 27
2. Linear Programming: Model Formulation and Graphical Solution, 29
Model Formulation, 30
A Maximization Model Example, 30
Time Out: for George B. Dantzig, 31
Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models, 34
Management Science Application: Operational Cost Control at Kellogg, 35
Management Science Application: Improving Customer Service at Amazon.com, 46
A Minimization Model Example, 47
Management Science Application: Determining Optimal Fertilizer Mixes at Soquimich (South America), 51
Irregular Types of Linear Programming Problems, 53
Characteristics of Linear Programming Problems, 55
Summary, 56
References, 57
Example Problem Solutions, 57
Problems, 60
Case Problems, 69
3. Linear Programming: Computer Solution and Sensitivity Analysis, 71
Computer Solution, 72
Management Science Application: Optimizing Production Quantities at GE Plastics, 76
Sensitivity Analysis, 79
Management Science Application: Grape Juice Management at Welch’s, 82
Summary, 91
References, 91
Example Problem Solution, 92
Problems, 94
Case Problems, 108
4. Linear Programming: Modeling Examples, 110
A Product Mix Example, 111
A Diet Example, 116
An Investment Example, 119
Management Science Application: A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at Prudential Securities, Inc., 124
A Marketing Example, 124
A Transportation Example, 127
A Blend Example, 131
A Multiperiod Scheduling Example, 136
Management Science Application: Gasoline Blending at Texaco, 137
A Data Envelopment Analysis Example, 140
Management Science Application: Analyzing Bank Branch Efficiency by Using DEA, 141
Summary, 144
References, 145
Example Problem Solution, 145
Problems, 147
Case Problems, 176
5. Integer Programming, 181
Integer Programming Models, 182
Management Science Application: Allocating Operating Room Time at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital, 185
Integer Programming Graphical Solution, 186
Computer Solution of Integer Programming Problems with Excel and QM for Windows, 188
Time Out: for Ralph E. Gomory, 189
Management Science Application: College of Business Class Scheduling at Ohio University, 191
Management Science Application: Forming Business Case Student Teams at Indiana University, 195
0–1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples, 196
Management Science Application: Planning Next-Day Air Shipments at UPS, 203
Summary, 203
References, 204
Example Problem Solution, 204
Problems, 205
Case Problems, 219
6. Transportation, Transshipment, and Assignment Problems, 226
The Transportation Model, 227
Time Out: for Frank L. Hitchcock and Tjalling C. Koopmans, 229
Management Science Application: Transportation Models at Nu-kote International, 230
Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem, 230
Management Science Application: Matching Wineries with Distributors, 235
The Transshipment Model, 235
Management Science Application: Transporting Mail at the U.S. Postal Service, 239
The Assignment Model, 240
Computer Solution of an Assignment Problem, 240
Management Science Application: Supplying Empty Freight Cars at Union Pacific Railroad, 243
Management Science Application: Assigning Umpire Crews at Professional Tennis Tournaments, 244
Summary, 244
References, 245
Example Problem Solution, 245
Problems, 246
Case Problems, 273
7. Network Flow Models, 280
Network Components, 281
The Shortest Route Problem, 282
The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem, 289
Management Science Application: Reducing Travel Costs at the Defense Contract Management Agency, 290
The Maximal Flow Problem, 294
Time Out: for E. W. Dijkstra, L. R. Ford, Jr., and D. R. Fulkerson, 295
Management Science Application: Improving Service for Yellow Freight System’s Terminal Network, 296
Summary, 300
References, 301
Example Problem Solution, 301
Problems, 303
Case Problems, 322
8. Project Management, 328
The Elements of Project Management, 329
Management Science Application: Managing Projects in China, 331
Time Out: for Henry Gantt, 335
Management Science Application: An Air Flight Safety and Efficiency Project at the FAA, 337
CPM/PERT, 338
Time Out: for Morgan R. Walker, James E. Kelley, Jr., and D. G. Malcolm, 339
Probabilistic Activity Times, 347
Management Science Application: A Drug Development Project to Combat Malaria, 353
Microsoft Project, 354
Project Crashing and Time–Cost Trade-Off, 361
Management Science Application: Reconstructing the Pentagon After 9/11, 365
Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Programming Model, 366
Summary, 373
References, 373
Example Problem Solution, 374
Problems, 376
Case Problems, 395
9. Multicriteria Decision Making, 398
Goal Programming, 399
Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming, 403
Computer Solution of Goal Programming Problems with QM for Windows and Excel, 406
Management Science Application: Developing Television Advertising Sales Plans at NBC, 407
Time Out: for Abraham Charnes and William W. Cooper, 410
The Analytical Hierarchy Process, 413
Management Science Application: Selecting Students for Graduate Studies Abroad at Dar Al-Hekma Women’s College, 414
Management Science Application: Analyzing Advanced-Technology Projects at NASA, 420
Management Science Application: Ranking Twentieth-Century Army Generals, 422
Scoring Models, 425
Management Science Application: A Scoring Model for Determining U.S. Army Installation Regions, 426
Summary, 427
References, 427
Example Problem Solutions, 427
Problems, 431
Case Problems, 459
10. Nonlinear Programming, 463
Nonlinear Profit Analysis, 464
Constrained Optimization, 467
Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problems with Excel, 470
A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints, 473
Nonlinear Model Examples, 475
Management Science Application: Gas Production in Australia, 478
Summary, 480
References, 481
Example Problem Solution, 481
Problems, 481
Case Problems, 486
11. Probability and Statistics, 488
Types of Probability, 489
Fundamentals of Probability, 491
Management Science Application: Treasure Hunting with Probability and Statistics, 493
Statistical Independence and Dependence, 495
Expected Value, 502
Management Science Application: A Probability Model for Analyzing Coast Guard Patrol Effectiveness, 504
The Normal Distribution, 504
Summary, 516
References, 516
Example Problem Solution, 516
Problems, 518
Case Problem, 525
12. Decision Analysis, 526
Components of Decision Making, 527
Decision Making without Probabilities, 528
Management Science Application: Decision Analysis at DuPont, 530
Decision Making with Probabilities, 535
Management Science Application: Evaluating Electric Generator Maintenance Schedules Using Decision Tree Analysis, 546
Decision Analysis with Additional Information, 550
Management Science Application: Decision Analysis in the Electric Power Industry, 551
Management Science Application: Discount Fare Allocation at American Airlines, 553
Management Science Application: Scheduling Refueling at the Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant, 557
Utility, 557
Summary, 559
References, 559
Example Problem Solution, 559
Problems, 563
Case Problems, 582
13. Queuing Analysis, 586
Elements of Waiting Line Analysis, 587
The Single-Server Waiting Line System, 588
Time Out: for Agner Krarup Erlang, 589
Management Science Application: Reducing Perceived Waiting Time at Bank of America, 597
Undefined and Constant Service Times, 598
Finite Queue Length, 601
Management Science Application: Providing Telephone Order Service in the Retail Catalog Business, 603
Finite Calling Population, 604
The Multiple-Server Waiting Line, 607
Management Science Application: Making Sure 911 Calls Get Through at AT&T, 611
Additional Types of Queuing Systems, 613
Summary, 614
References, 614
Example Problem Solution, 615
Problems, 616
Case Problems, 624
14. Simulation, 627
The Monte Carlo Process, 628
Time Out: for John Von Neumann, 633
Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets, 633
Simulation of a Queuing System, 639
Management Science Application: Planning for Health Emergencies Created by Terrorist Attacks, 642
Continuous Probability Distributions, 643
Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results, 648
Crystal Ball, 650
Verification of the Simulation Model, 658
Areas of Simulation Application, 658
Management Science Application: Simulating a 10-km Race in Boulder, Colorado, 660
Summary, 660
References, 661
Example Problem Solution, 661
Problems, 664
Case Problems, 678
15. Forecasting, 681
Forecasting Components, 682
Management Science Application: Forecasting Advertising Demand at NBC, 684
Time Series Methods, 685
Management Science Application: Forecasting at Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, 689
Management Science Application: Forecasting Customer Demand at Taco Bell, 690
Management Science Application: Seasonal Forecasting at Dell, 695
Management Science Application: Developing Joint Forecasts at Boeing and Alcoa, 698
Forecast Accuracy, 699
Management Science Application: Forecasting at Bayer Consumer Care, 702
Time Series Forecasting Using Excel, 703
Time Series Forecasting Using QM for Windows, 705
Regression Methods, 706
Management Science Application: An Airline Passenger Forecasting Model, 709
Summary, 715
References, 715
Example Problem Solutions, 716
Problems, 718
Case Problems, 738
16. Inventory Management, 742
Elements of Inventory Management, 743
Management Science Application: Evaluating Inventory Costs at Hewlett Packard, 745
Inventory Control Systems, 746
Time Out: for Ford Harris, 747
Economic Order Quantity Models, 748
The Basic EOQ Model, 748
The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt, 754
The EOQ Model with Shortages, 756
Management Science Application: Determining Inventory Ordering Policy at Dell, 759
EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows, 760
EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM, 760
Quantity Discounts, 761
Management Science Application: Quantity Discount Orders at Mars, 764
Reorder Point, 766
Determining Safety Stock by Using Service Levels, 768
Management Science Application: Establishing Inventory Safety Stocks at Kellogg’s, 771
Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory System, 772
Summary, 773
References, 774
Example Problem Solutions, 774
Problems, 775
Case Problems, 782
Appendix A, 785
Normal and Chi-Square Tables, 785
Appendix B, 787
Setting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet, 787
Appendix C, 791
The Poisson and Exponential Distributions, 791
Solutions to Selected Odd-Numbered Problems, 793
Glossary, 801
Index, 807
Photo Credits, 815
Online Modules, A-1
Module A. The Simplex Solution Method, A-1
Module B. Transportation and Assignment Solution Methods, B-1
Module C. Integer Programming: The Branch and Bound Method, C-1
Module D. Nonlinear Programming Solution Techniques, D-1
Module E. Game Theory, E-1
Module F. Markov Analysis, F-1

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